Dr. Khalid Al-Shafi
Is there a possible change in the decades-old US strategy in the Middle East, in particular with the Mullah regime in Tehran?
The outcome of the Iran nuclear talks with P5 + 1 in Lausanne has been described differently by Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iranian Foreign Minister, John Kerry, US Secretary of State, and President Barack Obama.
However, diplomatic manipulation is naturally expected by the end of any negotiations. Obama confirmed that Washington will remain committed to the security of its allies and, of course, on top of them — Israel.
He also assured that his country will remain obliged with the security of the GCC states on the principles of Eisenhower to protect the Gulf.
Although Obama has invited Gulf leaders to a meeting in Camp David this spring to discuss the security of the Middle East and reassured them about the nuclear deal with Tehran.
GCC leaders fear that what is going on between Iran and the US is something that goes beyond the nuclear programme.
It is an integrated deal that takes into account the security, economy, oil and political interests of the two countries. It extends to include defining the Iranian role in the region, particularly in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Bahrain in addition to the situation of the Shia crescent in the face of the Sunni crescent which extends from Suadi Arabia to Egypt, Turkey and Pakistan.
Many think that Iran got rid of the dispute with Israel and the West after the framework nuclear agreement and will be free to deal with Arab-Iran or Sunni-Shia disputes which means more political and security concerns for the region.
Iran will increase its political intervention in the internal affairs of the neighbouring countries. The statement “Baghdad is the capital of Persian Empire” by Ali Younesi, Adviser to President Hassan Rowhani, has significance.
On the other hand, Prince Turkey bin Faisal, former director of Suadi intelligence and former ambassador to the United Kingdom and the US, has said that allowing Iran to have nuclear power will spur a nuclear arms race in the region. And Saudi Arabia has explained that it will not remain handicapped if Iran owned nuclear weapons.
The nuclear talks created a chance for Iran to establish new relationships with the West and the world. It also assured Tehran’s right to have a nuclear programme under the monitoring of International Atomic Energy Agency and allowed it to have a number of centrifuges. This will delay Iran for about 20 years from reaching the threshold of a nuclear bomb. Perhaps the quantity for enriched uranium could be enough to make a bomb in less than one year if the deal had failed. What I would like to emphasise here is having a good deal is a way to stabilise the region and move towards development programmes which is much better than destabilising the region and giving extra doses to civil wars and political disputes which will lead to oil price fluctuations and hinder developments.
The Peninsula