Narendra Modi. Prakash Singh/Bloomberg
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi last met President Donald Trump five years ago, the US leader stood before a crowd of 100,000 cheering Indians in Modi’s home state of Gujarat and declared: "America will always be faithful and loyal friends to the Indian people.”
Modi is likely to find the US president in a decidedly less celebratory mood when the two leaders meet in Washington this week.
The head of the world’s most populous nation faces a minefield in negotiations with Trump, who has signaled that India remains a potential tariff target despite a deepening partnership between the two countries.
Modi has rolled out a series of concessions to Trump in an effort to mollify the US leader and preserve his nation’s access to its largest trading partner.
In the last few weeks, India has slashed tariffs on items from motorcycles to luxury cars, agreed to take planeloads of undocumented migrants and pushed to ramp up purchases of US energy.
"Prime Minister Modi knows that Trump’s priorities are deportations of illegal Indians and India’s high tariffs, so Modi has prepared for this, and he is seeking to preempt Trump’s anger over these issues,” said Lisa Curtis, a former Trump aide who directs the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
That may not be enough. Trump has repeatedly threatened tariffs on India in return for its high levies on US goods and he’s vowed to soon enact "reciprocity” on all nations when it comes to import duties - a move that would hit India harder than most major trade partners.
Underscoring that view, top Trump economic aide Kevin Hassett told CNBC this week that India’s tariffs on US imports were "enormously high” and said Modi "has got a lot to talk about with the president.”
India’s stock market slumped on Wednesday ahead of Modi’s meeting with Trump, with the MSCI India Index touching its lowest level since early June, taking its losses for the week to as much as 4.6%.
Some in Modi’s administration are concerned that his early overtures may not yield much from the new president, and say it’s not clear what, if anything, Trump is seeking from New Delhi, people familiar with the matter said.
They also worry that India has few backers among immigration and foreign policy hardliners in Trump’s government, in particular on the issue of H-1B visas for skilled workers, they said.
The unease underscores the stakes for India going into Thursday’s meeting. Modi is among the earliest batch of foreign leaders to meet with Trump since he returned to office, and their summit follows a series of personal phone calls and lower-level meetings between their governments.
"President Trump and Prime Minister Modi are focused on deepening the US-India strategic partnership across defense, energy, technology and fair trade,” said Brian Hughes, a US National Security Council spokesman, in a statement, adding that the leaders share "warm ties.”
India’s Ministry of External Affairs didn’t immediately respond to an email seeking further information.
Another issue hanging over the gathering that might not be formally discussed is the US allegations of bribery leveled during the Biden administration against Indian billionaire Gautam Adani, a close associate of Modi.
Adani has denied the charges, and it now rests with Trump’s Justice Department to determine how aggressively to pursue the case.
For all their differences, there’s little doubt that India has become an increasingly important partner for the US, especially when it comes to pushing back on China.
American companies including Apple Inc. and Starbucks Corp. have turned to India as an engine of growth or as an alternative to having supply chains moored to China.
India is also an active partner with the US, Australia and Japan in the "Quad,” an informal bloc with shared economic and security interests that often draws Beijing’s criticism.
At the same time, India is a leader of the so-called Global South, particularly through the BRICS grouping with Brazil, Russia and South Africa that is frequently at odds with US priorities. And India continues to be a major buyer of Russian oil and weaponry.
Despite all that, ties with India have generally received bipartisan support in Washington and the US president has been seen positively in India.
Trump’s 2020 visit - billed "Namaste, Trump” - received blanket coverage in the Indian media, and was preceded a year earlier by a trip Modi took to Houston dubbed "Howdy, Modi.”
But Trump has long used trade balances as a lens for rendering judgment on other nations, and that tendency isn’t likely to change.
The $41 billion US trade deficit with India in 2023 put it 10th overall, just behind South Korea. On the campaign trail, Trump said India was a "very big abuser” of its trade ties with the US.
Modi is going into this week’s meeting prepared to discuss further reducing India’s import duties, as well as purchasing more energy and defense equipment from the US, Bloomberg News has reported.
Harsh Shringla, a former Indian ambassador to the US and former Indian foreign secretary, signaled that’s the approach most likely to resonate with Trump.
"The way out of this is to provide the United States a window that would enable it to get a better access to the Indian market, and vice versa,” he said.
