Doha: Qatar’s economy is expected to witness a robust recovery this year. Global organisations expect Qatar’s economy to grow by more than 2 percent in 2021, and by more than 3.5 percent in 2022, said the latest Qatar Economic Outlook Report 2021-2023.
“The consensus forecasts by a number of international institutions, organizations, and banks showed that the Qatari economy will undergo recovery during 2021 and 2022, with a predicted average growth rate of about 2.8 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively,” Dr. Saleh Al Nabit, President of the Planning and Statistics Authority in the report.
The Planning and Statistics Authority (PSA) released yesterday, Qatar’s Economic Outlook Report 2021-2023 – Issue No. 13 - in which it reviewed the developments of the national economy during 2017-2021.
“The preliminary results of the PSA’s forecasts for non-oil activities (non-hydrocarbon Gross Value Added) for the three scenarios indicate that it is likely to grow between 3 percent and 3.9 percent in 2021, and between 2.8 percent and 4.7 percent in 2022, driven by the expectations of booming activities related to hosting the 2022 FIFA World Cup,” said Dr. Saleh Al Nabit.
Based on the assumption that the performance level of the value-added sector of the hydrocarbons sector during the period 2021-2023 will decrease in a range between negative 0.7 percent and negative 0.2 percent in 2021 for the three scenarios, then it will stabilise at either negative 0.3 percent or 0 percent during 2022 and 2023 for the same scenarios.
“These assumptions are therefore expected to drive GDP growth between 1.5 percent and 2.3 percent in 2021, with a middle scenario of around 1.9 percent. But it is expected to rise to a range of between 1.6 percent and 2.9 percent in 2022 for all three scenarios, before stabilizing in 2023 between 0.7 percent and 1.8 percent,” said Dr. Saleh Al Nabit.
According to the report, the recovery of the Qatari economy for the current year and the next year will depend on the extent of; the stability of global oil and gas prices; the openness of movement, travel, and tourism, which will be conducive to hosting of the FIFA World Cup; the stability of the global inflation rate and the gradual tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve.
As a result of the optimistic forecasts for the stability of oil and gas prices during the period (2021-2023) for the three scenarios, it is likely that the public finances will achieve a surplus ranging between 1.9 percent and 3.6 percent of GDP, as well as it is expected that the current account of the balance of payments will achieve a surplus ranging between 5.8 percent and 11.5 percent of GDP during the same period and for the same scenarios.
With regard to the inflation rate of consumer prices, it is expected to witness imported and domestic inflationary pressures ranging from between 2 percent to 3.5 percent during the period (2021- 2023), due to the rise in prices of basic commodities in global markets caused by the bottlenecks in commodity supply chains that have been so visible since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the negative repercussions of expansionary financial and monetary policies.
