The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) can adapt to climate change if it implements significant economic and environmental strategies, Greg Shapland, Associate Fellow of the Middle East and North Africa Programme – Chatham House said, during a webinar titled ‘Climate Change and the GCC: Economic and Environmental Impact.’
The webinar highlighted the present and potential future impact of the climate change phenomenon, mainly as it affects the GCC region. Dr. Nikolay Kozhanov, Research Associate Professor at Qatar University, moderated the event.
In his presentation, Shapland highlighted that climate change is a reality, but its impact on the entire planet can’t be predicted. He said the current models used by scientists are not as accurate as they would like them to be and that different models provide different results.
Directly, climate change would impact the GCC in temperature, rising sea level, frequent storms that could lead to floods in low lying layers, reduced but more intense rainfall, and higher sea temperature, which would damage the coral reefs. Indirectly, the MENA expert said the slow pace of transition to renewable energy would, in turn, affect temperature rise.
Furthermore, this may disrupt food security and supplies, affecting the GCC as it imports 85% of food and around 93% of cereal. By 2050, it is projected that food-producing countries would have to feed over 9 billion people. He noted that there might be years when GCC countries have to pay more for their food which could be challenging if revenue decreases.
“Industrialised countries may find alternative means for power, hence reducing demand in oil, leading to lesser income for the region.
More energy would be generated by wind and solar power. Consequently, the oil value would fall. Despite this, more energy sources would be needed because economies would still grow,” Shapland said.
Shapland stressed that the GCC has an advantage over other MENA countries because of its wealth which puts it in a position to fund and prepare for extremities.
In this case, the GCC can take measures like stockpile food in case of global shortages, treat and recycle urban wastewater to grow high-value crops. The bloc can also protect existing coastal infrastructure with more robust flood defenses, locate new infrastructure further inland to allow SLR and storm surges, and ensure storm drains can cope with intense rainfall events.
Other measures include developing shared systems to give early warning of extreme climate events, making sure there are robust back-up systems for power generation and distribution so that AC doesn’t fail in heat waves, regenerate rapidly-build cities to make them less vulnerable to heatwaves SLR, etc. and automate outside jobs to the extent possible.
