Views /Opinion

Last year was the hottest on record (again!)

For the second consecutive year, global temperatures have reached a new record high. According to data from Copernicus and the World Meteorological Organization, 2024 has surpassed the previous record set in 2023 as the hottest year on record.

In 2024, the global average temperature exceeded 1.5 degrees for the first time. 1.5 degrees is considered the threshold beyond which catastrophic and unpredictable climate change will be very hard to avoid. Because going beyond 1.5 degrees some of the climate feedback loops can become out of control, this is the target established by the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. In addition to breaking the yearly record, 2024 also broke another record: most days in 2024 also exceeded 1.5 degrees and were the highest recorded for each day, ever.

Of course, breaching 1.5 degrees does not mean that we are now inevitably above 1.5 degrees forever, as natural fluctuations may make future years a bit lower, but the trend is crystal clear: the 10 hottest years on record have all occurred during the last decade.

These temperatures reflect the growing impact that human-induced climate change is having on the planet. Climate change is no longer a scientific issue of academic interest. Climate Change is a reality, it is here to stay, and its consequences are being felt all over the world: fires, droughts, floods, hurricanes, melting glaciers, and rapid sea level rise.

Are human societies properly responding to this existential threat? There is clearly a lot of concern and discussion at the highest levels, and each year the gathering of world leaders during the meeting of the UN Climate Convention (the “COP”) attracts a lot of global attention, but the reality is that the trend in global emissions of greenhouse gases and the resulting increase in global temperatures continues to grow, seemingly unabated.

There is, however, some reason for hope. As economies become richer, they also tend to become more efficient and therefore tend to emit less greenhouse gases per unit of economic output. This phenomenon is called “decoupling” and results from a combination of clean energy adoption, energy efficiency improvements, and effective climate policies. In practice, it means that countries can grow economically while at the same time reducing their emissions, and this has already occurred in most industrialized countries. For example, the United Kingdom was the first country to achieve decoupling in the late 1980s, in part by relying less on coal for its industries and thus becoming much more efficient economically. Other countries where decoupling occurred early include Sweden, Germany, Denmark, and France. The United States achieved decoupling in the mid-2,000s.

All signs suggest that China, the largest emitter of greenhouse gases, may also achieve decoupling in 2025. If this is the case, then 2025 may be the year in which we finally achieve global decoupling, thus allowing the world to continue to grow economically (the key ingredient to reducing poverty and enhancing standards of living), while at the same time starting to reduce the emissions that cause climate change.

While 2025 may yet be another year of record temperatures globally, it may also be the year when we finally start to “bend the curve” in the long march towards reducing emissions in order to avoid catastrophic climate change. Time is running very, very, short. Stay tuned.