Dr. Khalid Al-Shafi
The situation in Syria has deteriorated drastically in the past few days and does not look better than the situation in Iraq.
Assad’s forces have been suffering defeats consistently, IS and other extremists have been making progress and are now controlling more towns and running over half of the country, including borders with Iraq and Jordan. Banned and dangerous weapons are no longer protecting Assad and his regime. Heritage sites, museums and ancient monuments are being plundered and destroyed as we witnessed in Iraq.
The British daily, The Guardian, published recently a secret report prepared by CIA in August 2012. The report not only predicted but also welcomed the possibility of the establishment of an Islamic Emirate in East Syria and another state controlled by Al Qaeda in Syria and Iraq. The report mentions Al Qaeda in Iraq, which became ISIS, and other extremist groups as main actors in the ongoing fighting in Syria.
Furthermore, the report indicated that Western countries, the GCC states and Turkey supported these groups to control eastern Syria to isolate and weaken the Syrian regime and this is what has actually happened after two years of fighting. On the other hand, Iran is desperately trying to prevent the collapse of Assad’s regime and recently mobilised fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan to fight in Syria. According to the Syrian opposition, eighty percent of fighters they are facing are foreigners and only 20 percent are Syrians.
In such dire straits and in the absence of compromises and political solutions, Syria looks headed towards the worst scenario — a splintering of the country with different groups ruling different regions. The new states may include an Alawite’s state, a Kurdish state in north-east Syria, a moderate Islamic state in the area from Damascus to the border with Israel, and finally, the Caliphate state by ISIS which may extend from Aleppo to the border with Iraq.
