Dr. Khalid Al-Shafi
The stormy changes which hit the Arab region require a different situation from what was previously known. This transformation has to tackle related forces that could affect entire relationships and interactions of the region, or affect stability and security, and relations with a super power like the United States, which is the dominant force influencing the region for several decades. This was indicated by recent analyses and studies about regional affairs and its future outlook.
A recent study was published by international media about Israeli intelligence report entitled (Learn how your enemy thinks!). The report refers to the Arab world as being in a constant state of weakness and does not have the ability to address its collective problems from within. Today, the three major Arab countries (Egypt, Iraq and Syria) are suffering internal conflicts, and even other countries are busy with their domestic problems.
In light of this situation in the Arab world, the Calendar of Events in the Middle East is determined by non-Arab countries, namely: Iran, Turkey, and to some extent Israel.
The Gulf region has to deal with transfer of the Arab-Israeli conflict to the
Arabian Gulf.
Since 1973, extended wars between Arabs and Israelis stopped and were replaced by limited local conflicts, which were distinguished by terrorist gangsters and guerrilla warfare.
The three major battles that occurred after that were in the Gulf region; Iraq-Iran conflict, and the two Gulf wars.
This change is linked with two less important factors:
The first of which is the fact that most Arab leaders have adopted the idea of resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict through political dialogue instead of war.
The second factor is related to the international front, where the United States will no longer be the dominant influence in the Middle East, or more precisely, the region is no longer the focus of US policy. This is due to a reprioritisation of Washington’s policies, the US’ growing interest in Asia, and other issues related to the impact of July 3 coup in Egypt. The US is also encouraging other powers, such as Russia, to intervene in the affairs of the region.
The study concludes that, in the coming years, the region will experience radical changes in alliances, and perhaps beyond that, redrawing borderlines to create new cantons like Sykes-Picot.
The region will also see a decline in the role of a nationalistic state as opposed to the proliferation of armed groups which witnessed considerable momentum of violent confrontations against those countries, accompanied by security chaos, which is currently experienced in Arab Spring nations.
This is a fraction of Israel’s concern, so what about the Arabs?
The stormy changes which hit the Arab region require a different situation from what was previously known. This transformation has to tackle related forces that could affect entire relationships and interactions of the region, or affect stability and security, and relations with a super power like the United States, which is the dominant force influencing the region for several decades. This was indicated by recent analyses and studies about regional affairs and its future outlook.
A recent study was published by international media about Israeli intelligence report entitled (Learn how your enemy thinks!). The report refers to the Arab world as being in a constant state of weakness and does not have the ability to address its collective problems from within. Today, the three major Arab countries (Egypt, Iraq and Syria) are suffering internal conflicts, and even other countries are busy with their domestic problems.
In light of this situation in the Arab world, the Calendar of Events in the Middle East is determined by non-Arab countries, namely: Iran, Turkey, and to some extent Israel.
The Gulf region has to deal with transfer of the Arab-Israeli conflict to the
Arabian Gulf.
Since 1973, extended wars between Arabs and Israelis stopped and were replaced by limited local conflicts, which were distinguished by terrorist gangsters and guerrilla warfare.
The three major battles that occurred after that were in the Gulf region; Iraq-Iran conflict, and the two Gulf wars.
This change is linked with two less important factors:
The first of which is the fact that most Arab leaders have adopted the idea of resolving the Arab-Israeli conflict through political dialogue instead of war.
The second factor is related to the international front, where the United States will no longer be the dominant influence in the Middle East, or more precisely, the region is no longer the focus of US policy. This is due to a reprioritisation of Washington’s policies, the US’ growing interest in Asia, and other issues related to the impact of July 3 coup in Egypt. The US is also encouraging other powers, such as Russia, to intervene in the affairs of the region.
The study concludes that, in the coming years, the region will experience radical changes in alliances, and perhaps beyond that, redrawing borderlines to create new cantons like Sykes-Picot.
The region will also see a decline in the role of a nationalistic state as opposed to the proliferation of armed groups which witnessed considerable momentum of violent confrontations against those countries, accompanied by security chaos, which is currently experienced in Arab Spring nations.
This is a fraction of Israel’s concern, so what about the Arabs?
