Expansion of LNG production could deliver sizeable improvements to Qatar’s public finances in the long term. QP intends to add 49 million tonnes per year (1.9 million barrels of oil equivalent per day) of LNG production from its North Field by 2027, a 64 percent increase over current capacity of 77 million tonnes.
While we assume that the project will reduce QP’s cash flow to the state by around $25bn spread over 2022-2028, the additional LNG production could ultimately result in more than $20 billion per year of additional hydrocarbon revenue to the government (after wind-down of QP capital spending and assuming some of the project costs are covered by debt and international partners).
The selection of international partners for the expansion has been postponed until end-2020, but QP is proceeding with engineering and design work and has acquired options for the construction of 100 LNG tankers for $20bn.
