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Los Angeles: The United States may be on the brink of a major measles resurgence as vaccination rates continue to fall across several states, according to a new study published Thursday.
A team of Stanford University researchers used a simulation model to assess the importation and dynamic spread of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases across 50 US states and the District of Columbia.
The model evaluated scenarios with different vaccination rates over a 25-year period.
At current vaccination levels, the model projects that measles could regain endemic status in the United States, potentially resulting in approximately 851,300 cases over the next 25 years, according to the study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association.
If vaccination rates were to decline by 10 percent, the study estimates the country could see 11.1 million measles cases over the same time period.
A more severe drop - 50 percent - could lead to 51.2 million measles cases, alongside 9.9 million rubella cases, 4.3 million cases of poliomyelitis, 197 diphtheria cases, 10.3 million hospitalizations, and 159,200 deaths.
These findings support the need to continue routine childhood vaccination at high coverage to prevent resurgence of vaccine-preventable infectious diseases in the country, according to the study.
