Doha, Qatar: Oil prices saw a notable weekly gain as markets reacted positively to geopolitical and trade developments. Brent and US crude futures climbed approximately 5% over the week, marking their first weekly gain in three weeks amid optimism for a US-EU trade deal and escalating US sanctions on Iranian oil exports. The week ended early due to Easter holidays, with Thursday’s session acting as the final trading day, noted Al-Attiyah Foundation in its Weekly Energy Market Review.
Brent settled at $67.96 per barrel and WTI at $64.68, both posting over 3% increases for the day. Key market drivers included remarks by US President Donald Trump and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, who expressed confidence in resolving trade tensions with Europe. A successful deal is expected to ease concerns about oil demand being curtailed by tariffs. Meanwhile, Washington intensified pressure on Tehran, issuing sanctions targeting several Chinese “teapot” refiners and companies facilitating Iranian oil shipments. These sanctions are seen as potentially reducing global oil supply, contributing to bullish sentiment.
OPEC also made headlines by announcing updated output reduction plans from Iraq, Kazakhstan, and others to offset overproduction. This reassured markets that the group remains committed to managing supply. Despite the upbeat market response, broader sentiment was tempered by downward revisions in oil price and demand forecasts from OPEC, the International Energy Agency, and major financial institutions. These revisions reflected ongoing uncertainty stemming from global trade disruptions.
Asian spot LNG prices held near one-year lows at $11.50/mmBtu this week, despite supply disruptions at export facilities in Australia, Malaysia, and Brunei. While a few East Asian importers, including Korea and Taiwan, made opportunistic purchases, most buyers remained cautious due to weak demand and ample storage.
The inter-basin arbitrage remained closed, with little competition for Atlantic cargoes. In Europe, gas prices edged up slightly as lower temperatures and reduced renewable generation were forecast for the weekend.
The Dutch TTF front-month contract rose to $11.82/mmBtu, while terminal maintenance limited regasification options, keeping prices at a premium to Asia.
EU officials abandoned immediate plans to ban Russian LNG imports, instead preparing a roadmap to phase out Russian energy by 2027. In the US, natural gas futures remained at a 10-week low, closing at $3.245/mmBtu, as mild weather forecasts and low demand kept prices subdued.
However, both production and LNG export feedgas hit record highs in April, with average output reaching 106.3 bcfd. A smaller-than-expected weekly storage build and potential reductions in oil drilling—linked to falling crude prices—could tighten gas supply and provide future support for prices.
