Doha: Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa will be responsible for the bulk of future gas demand growth as the global primer energy demand is expected to rise in the coming decades according to the (Gas Exporting Countries Forum) GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050 Synopsis 2022 edition.
Asia Pacific will represent the largest growth engine, contributing to half of the global net demand increase during the outlook period. Europe will be the only region to experience an evident declining trend, as REPowerEU planimplementation will have a strong impact, the edition notes.
Global primary energy demand will rise by 22 percent, reaching 17,865 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) by 2050. The structure of the energy mix is becoming more diversified thanks to the growing needs for clean energy, led by natural gas and renewables.
According to the GECF synopsis natural gas will come out on top, raising its share by three points to 26 percent by 2050. Climate change policies will continue to play a crucial role.
However, energy security, affordability and sustainability shall remain equally important. In this context, a multi-dimensional approach should be the way forward to deal with long-term energy and climate targets. Natural gas, the cleanest burning hydrocarbon, will form the bedrock of a realistic, cost effective and just energy transition.
Natural gas will overtake coal in around 2025 and become the most utilised fuel just after 2040. Natural gas demand is projected to increase by 36% to 5,460 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2050. Policies aimed at air quality improvements, and coal- and oil-to-gas switching are among the main drivers. Natural gas paired with CCS/CCUS, both in power generation and industry, will become an important mitigation option, supporting long-term gas use.
Power generation will take a frontline place, accounting for 43 percent of additional volumes between 2021 and 2050. This is underpinned by a strong growth inelectricity needs and policies to phase down coal-fired capacity. Meanwhile, the increasing role of renewables will make gas-fired generation a critical source of system flexibility.
There will be new avenues for natural gas demand, particularly through the growing use as a source for blue hydrogen generation. The transport sector will emerge as an important demand centre on the back of stricter environmental regulations and supportive policies.
The GECF Global Gas Outlook 2050 is an annual flagship publication of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum.
